The recent disappearance and apparent murder of three foreign tourists in Mexico is a sign of much broader problems and a reminder that violent crime is a serious risk for tourists. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a controversial populist, is now entering the final few months of his six-year term in office. He has failed to enact policies to improve security. His strategy, whether by design or unfortunate miscalculation, has empowered Mexico’s military and given free rein to Mexico’s powerful organized crime groups.
The killing of three surfers visiting beaches south of Tijuana near the U.S. border highlights just how badly security problems in Mexico have deteriorated. On May 5, family members of three foreign tourists, including one U.S. citizen, identified the bodies of the victims, after the three cadavers were found near the town of Ensenada in the state of Baja California, a 90-minute drive south of San Diego. The bodies of the three missing surfers were found in the bottom of a 50-foot well. All three had gunshot wounds. Local media reported that their deaths occurred during a botched carjacking.
These homicides add to the historically high tally of over 187,000 murders that have occurred in Mexico during Lopez Obrador’s presidency.
The U.S. State Department warns tourists, “violent crime – such as homicide, kidnapping, carjacking, and robbery – is widespread and common in Mexico.”
The city of Tijuana is now considered to be the worst hotspot in Mexico for murder and car theft, according to data from Mexico’s Ministry of Defense (SEDENA).
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On April 21, 2024 an Uber driver was shot during a robbery in Tijuana.
But, in spite of the risks, over 75 million tourists visited Mexico in 2023, spending a record-breaking $30 billion. Last year, Mexico’s economy earned almost as much income from tourist spending as it did from foreign direct investment or oil exports.
Mexico continues to enjoy a position as one of the world’s top tourism destinations, despite its well-documented problems with violence and organized crime.
During his time in government, President Lopez Obrador has visited Baja California on several occasions and promised to bring peace and security to the state. In 2021 during a visit to Tijuana, Baja California’s largest and most violent city, he avoided talking about the persistently high murder rates and ongoing disputes between cartels. Instead, he complained about the dangers of violent video games, spending nearly two minutes talking about Call of Duty Warzone.
“These video games are pure violence. They are toxic, harmful, violent content,” he warned.
He didn’t mention that young people in Baja California just need to turn on the news to see action-movie style scenes of masked criminal gunmen in tactical gear attacking heavily armed paramilitary-style police patrols.
On February 17, 2024, for instance, gunmen dressed in black military style attire used automatic rifles to attack a police patrol truck at a gas station in Ensenada, the same town where the surfers were killed.
Lopez Obrador hasn’t mentioned the school children who are taught to join their teachers in singing songs while hiding under their desks during cartel shootouts in Tijuana. He has avoided referencing the astounding 14,000 murders that have occurred in Baja California since 2019.
Lopez Obrador often downplays the threat from Mexico’s organized crime groups, claiming that cartel gunmen don’t bother civilians. On April 25, 2024 he claimed that he is able to visit remote towns in areas controlled by organized crime groups because even the bad guys are “respectful.”
His rhetoric doesn’t accommodate the uncomfortable truth that Mexico is increasingly plagued by a variety of organized crime rackets that supplement cross-border drug trafficking and affect residents and visitors in Mexico.
Mexico is now the world’s worst hotspot for criminal extortion and violent cargo truck hijacking.
Baja California is also one of the highest risk states in Mexico for violent carjackings.
Data published by Mexico’s federal government shows that Baja California recorded 1,193 violent carjackings in 2023. Mexico as a whole recorded over 36,000 violent carjackings in 2023. (The real incidence of carjacking in Mexico is likely even higher as many crimes go unreported.)
The risk of violent carjacking is a blind spot for many visitors in Mexico. Carjacking is a big business for criminals in Mexico because the country’s major organized crime groups use stolen cars for operations such as kidnapping and violent assaults on rival groups or security forces.
The killings in Ensenada show that criminal activity in Mexico continues to represent a serious risk for residents and visitors in Mexico. The World Justice Project ranks Mexico among the world’s worst countries in terms of rule of law. According to the Global Organized Crime Index, Mexico is the 3rd worst hotspot in the world for criminal activity. According to data from BSI Consulting, Mexico is now the highest risk country in the entire world for violent highway cargo truck hijackings.
But, despite the heavy news coverage about violent crime, Mexico is enjoying a new zenith of soft power acclaim around the world. Mexico City is now widely recognized as a cultural capital on par with New York City, Tokyo, London and Paris. But foreign visitors need to understand that despite its cultural cachet, Mexico still suffers from security problems unlike anything currently occurring in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, or France. Modern Mexico is a mix of paradoxical trends. The dynamic in many states including Baja California, Jalisco, Nuevo Leon, and Estado de Mexico (on the outskirts of Mexico City) is an unsettling mix of South Korea and Afghanistan.
It is true the Mexico’s largest organized crime groups have not diversified into systematically kidnapping tourists for ransom or targeting foreign executives and business travelers in violent attacks or extortion schemes.
But, if there is one thing that foreign tourists need to understand about Mexico, it’s that organized crime related-violence can affect ordinary people, residents and visitors alike. Especially when visiting rural areas outside of major cities, tourists need to be aware of the risks stemming from violence and organized crime activity. Tourists can be caught in extortion-related violence when organized crime groups attack bars, restaurants, and other businesses with gunfire or arson. Violent carjacking is a relevant concern in states such as Baja California, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Sinaloa and Estado de Mexico.
In terms of carjacking per capita Morelos is the highest risk state in Mexico, followed by Mexico State and Sinaloa. The prevalence of carjacking in Sinaloa undermines the popular myth that the Sinaloa Cartel doesn’t mess with innocent civilians.
Tourists considering renting a car and driving from Mexico City to nearby tourism sites need to be aware of the fact that Mexico State, which surrounds Mexico City, recorded 12,704 violent carjackings in 2023. The state of Jalisco, which is home to popular tourist destinations including Guadalajara, Lake Chapala, and Puerto Vallarta, recorded 3,360 violent carjackings in 2023, the second most of any state in Mexico. The state of Puebla, another popular tourist destination, recorded the third most violent carjackings (2,960).
During his time in office, Mexico’s President Lopez Obrador has failed to implement effective security policies and has empowered Mexico’s mafias. Mexico’s next president will be forced to reckon with the country’s pressing need to improve public security.
Additional reading: Is Organized Crime Activity Affecting Tijuana’s Nearshoring Boom?
