For today's MLB player prop picks, we decided to go deep into home run predictions specifically. The slate of games is lighter due to Thursday being a travel day, but there is one game in particular that is juicy from a home run perspective due to both the weather and the pitching matchup, so that is where we put our focus for today.
Play 1: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+425) BetMGM
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets, 7:10PM ET
The game in question, of course, is Marlins vs. Mets at Citi Field, the Mets' home stadium. Citi Field is not known as a hitter's park, but that is not the case for today. It is going to be mildly humid, with 16 MPH winds blowing out of the ballpark. From a strictly weather perspective, this is the best game of the day for home runs by far.
As for NY 1B Pete Alonso, he has been hit or miss this year, and he has not quite been the home run masher this year that he has been in previous years. On the entire season, he has an ISO rate (isolated power, a measure of a batter's power) of 22.7%, which is a far cry from last years 28.7%. For context, FanGraphs defines an ISO rate between 20-25% to be "great", with 25% and above considered "excellent." So, while Alonso is not hitting for as much power as he was last year, his power numbers are still good overall.
From there, he has a barrel rate of 13.1% (a measure of how frequently the batter makes contact with the barrel of the bat), which is also in the "great" category according to FanGraphs. For barrel rate, 10-15% is considered "great", with 15% and above "excellent." What makes Alonso a great bet for tonight specifically, though, is his fly-ball rate (how often the batter hits a fly-ball) of 46.2%, the 24th-highest in the MLB, and how well he has been hitting recently. Over the last 14 days, he has an ISO rate of 25.6% and a HardHit rate of 40.6%, which would be the 16th-highest in the MLB.
Play 2: Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+470) Caesars
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets, 7:10PM ET
As for Lindor, the Mets shortstop is typically a batter that you want to target when he is facing a left-handed pitcher as opposed to a righty which is what he is facing tonight. However, because of how bad this Marlins pitcher is, which we'll get into with our last pick, there is no reason to be scared off. Lindor hit a home run yesterday, and he has generally been known to be a streaky hitter. So, the hope here is that we are going to catch him in the middle of a hot streak.
There are reasons to believe that hot streak is starting now. Despite the fact that he has only hit two home runs in the month of June, he has been crushing the ball. He has 15 HardHits in June, with a HardHit rate of 41.2%, which would be 12th-highest in the entire MLB if you extrapolated that out for the entire season. In the same span, he has a barrel rate of 26.5%, which would be the second-highest barrel rate in the MLB, only behind Aaron Judge.
The good news with Lindor is it looks as though he has been aiming to hit more fly-balls recently. On Wednesday alone, he made contact with the baseball five separate times, and four of those were fly-balls. Over the last three games he has a combined eight fly-balls. He has been on fire this month, and when you take into account both the weather and the pitching matchup, there are plenty of reasons to trust Lindor to hit one out of the park.
Play 3: Brandon Nimmo to Hit a Home Run (+650) Caesars
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets, 7:10PM ET
This last one is admittedly going to take a leap of faith, as Mets outfielder Nimmo does not have the traditional power numbers that we look for. With that said, now is the time to dive into Marlins pitcher Roddery Munoz, who is the biggest reason why we are going heavy on the Mets today. Munoz has made four starts this season, and through those four starts he has been a historically bad pitcher overall, but specifically in the long ball department.
He has a HR/9 of 3.66, nearly double the current league-worst HR/9 of 1.85. This makes sense when you dive into the numbers as well. He allows a barrel rate of 21.2%. For context, the pitcher with the highest barrel rate allowed is currently at 11.9%. Munoz's HardHit rate allowed is 48.1%, which would be the third-highest allowed in the MLB. From there, he allows a fly-ball rate of 48.1%, which would be the fifth-worst number in the MLB. So, to put this all together, he allows among the hardest contact in the MLB while also allowing one of the highest fly-ball rates in MLB. You put all that together and you start to understand why he has given up so many home runs in just four starts.
To be clear, Munoz's numbers are bad against both right-handed hitters and lefties alike, which is why we are comfortable with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, but his numbers are particularly bad against lefty hitters, which is what led us to Brandon Nimmo. Munoz's fly-ball rate allowed against lefties is 68.2%, which would be the highest in the MLB by a mile. His HardHit rate allowed to lefties is 54.5%, which is another number that would be the highest in the MLB.
So, while Nimmo does not have the typical home run numbers that you look for, if there was ever a time for him to take someone yard, it would be against this Marlins pitcher. Nimmo at least has respectable numbers against RHP as well, with a 38% HardHit rate that wouldn't be the best number in MLB, but would be good for a respectable 27th of all qualified batters. For +650 odds, the value is there for him to go yard.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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